Despite the falls overnight, US markets are still up a few percent since the start of the week – Our market however, has not enjoyed the recovery movements that US markets have experienced and we are still sitting roughly where we closed Friday. Technically we are sitting right at the resistance level around 6,400 – but will fall from this level on open. The next support to the downside is at 6,250 – but we may not make it to this level today. If we break below 6,250, further falls will likely be seen. However, if we can rise through 6,400 in the coming days, we should see the market head back towards 6,500. Banks have been some of the hardest hit stocks on our market recently, with analysts warning that the interest rate cuts seen around the world will reduce banks’ net interest margins.
US stocks continued their volatile movements overnights with the news fluctuations related to coronavirus outbreak, falling substantially overnight. The Dow closed 969.58 points lower (-3.58%) and the S&P 500 was down 106.18 points (-3.39%). European markets were mostly lower as well, while Asian markets closed higher yesterday.
The US S&P 500 enjoyed the most volatile week since the S&P Global Ratings cut the US debt rating in 2011. Airlines were some of the hardest hit, with industry associations warning of the damage the virus would to to sales of airfares. Technically, the S&P 500 reversed much, but not all, of its gains from the day before, with the index falling back below the 3,100 level. The next level to the downside would be the 3,000-3,020 point support level. The index may have just formed a lower peak however – but we will have to wait for confirmation before this is verified. At the moment, it is one day forward, one day back for global markets – which suggests that US markets might be up tonight.
XJO Implied Volatility fell -6.74% and closed at 22.152. The US volatility was up 19.26% and closed at 39.62%.
US oil dropped a little overnight, despite OPEC’s decision overnight to cut production.
Gold rose substantially overnight, prices are at decade highs.
Iron ore continued its move higher overnight – prices remain very strong.
The Aussie dollar fell relative to the US dollar. Our dollar is trading around decade lows.
It is a bit of ‘one-day forward’ ‘one-day back’ for global markets at the moment. However, unlike the US markets who have so far managed to rise in that process, our market is heading no-where. OPEC’s supply cuts announced overnight were not enough to help oil prices higher, with airlines warning that sales of airfares are collapsing. Unfortunately there is not too much more to write about the virus, with many negative articles coming out after the US markets fell. Should US markets rise tonight, we should see some more positive articles over the weekend. The trajectory of the actual virus remains largely unchanged – the spread is being contained fairly well in China and South Korea, but the spread through Italy, Iran, and the US is what is now worrying markets.
- US shares fall on hawkish FED comments, XJO to reverse yesterday’s gains - April 5, 2024
- SP500 flat at 5,000, XJO to open flat - February 9, 2024
- Industry mail says interest rate cuts will be the flavour of 2024 with ASX to resume bullish momentum - January 5, 2024
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