The Australian SPI futures closed 15 points lower, indicating the market is likely to open lower.
The XJO pushed higher yesterday but struggled to hold onto the gains. The XJO technically is still in a short term downtrend and back inside a descending triangle. With the Futures up this morning, we will test resistance and the downtrend line at 6,530. Otherwise, if we continue lower, 6,400 is the next key level. After 6,400, the market may look to come down to a 10% correction around 6,200 and the 200 day MA.
US markets sit flat ahead of central banks meeting in Jackson Hole. The Dow closed 49.51 points higher (0.19%) and the S&P 500 was down 1.48 points (-0.05%). Most European major markets were lower, Asian markets were mixed.
The US markets remain muted as they closed off another mixed session. Markets continue to speculate on whether the FED Chair J. Powell will indicate a rate-cutting cycle is coming or if they will stay neutral. So all eyes on J. Powell on Saturday morning for any hints. Many analysts are suggesting the FED will go into a rate-cutting cycle after we saw the 2-year and 10-year bonds invert last week. Technically, the S&P500 has broken the descending triangle but seems to be struggling to break the 2,937 resistance. A break of 2,937 may confirm the uptrend is continuing. Otherwise, if it continues to fall from here we could be seeing a channel forming between 2,637 and 2,840 or the start of a downtrend. So really we are at a pivot point waiting for the next signal.
XJO Implied Volatility fell -4.77% and closed at 15.541. The US volatility was up 3.54% and closed at 17.5%.
Crude is consolidating between $60US and $50US.
Gold is taking a breather after rising strongly on world economic growth worries.
Iron Ore rebounded slightly after another move down earlier in the week.
The Aussie dollar is consolidating around 67.50 US cents.
Markets will be hanging onto every word of J Powell’s speech coming into this week for a clue on what the fed will do on their next rate announcement in late September. Otherwise, the optional stocks reporting are AWC, GMG, and SGM.