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  • Is the value trade overbought?

    A client asked earlier this week – is the value trade overbought? Our answer was yes but circling back with data/charts to which potentially support the assertion. Whilst we can talk to individual sector level valuations, in this email we provide 30,000 feet view of why the value to growth trade may take a pause

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  • Quick thoughts on Silver…

    So everyone is talking about silver right now – intensity and velocity has increased in recent days. Clearly silver is surging on the back of wallstreetbets retail investors looking to repeat their success with GameStop (GME) short squeeze. But to be fair to the fundamental guys, silver started to look interesting in 2020 and started

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  • Why oil markets could be the biggest winners from a COVID vaccine

    We have seen a jump in the headline oil prices and related oil equity prices Brent spot price went above US$48/bbl / WTI spot price touched $46/bbl, especially in Nov-20 on the back of several positive announcements relating to Covid-19 vaccines. With potentially the first batch of vaccines becoming available before the end of CY20,

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  • Biden vs Trump – Key policy differences of each Presidential candidate

    The outcome of the U.S. elections remain difficult to predict and will likely be a tight finish. Given all the polls and surveys to date, if one had to pick a result today, it is hard not to back Biden. However, the issue at present is consensus appears to be pricing in a significant Biden

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  • September Economic Wrap and the ASX Stocks that Moved

    US markets were weaker in the month, with the Dow Jones down -2.28% and S&P500 down -3.92% amid concern over tighter coronavirus restrictions and cloudy prospects for more economic stimulus. Long-dated US treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-Yr yield steady at 0.13% and 10-Yr yield lower at 0.68%. European markets were lower with the

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  • Australian Banks: Relaxation of Responsible Lending Rules – Thoughts and Implications

    Since the reports emerged in the media that Responsible Lending laws relating to the banks are likely to be relaxed, we have spent some time talking to various stakeholders (including the major banks) to better understand the implications. Overall, post our discussions our initial read is that investors and analysts need to curb their enthusiasm.

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  • Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) Investing – Sustainable Transport Solutions

    I wanted to share a worthwhile article from our colleague arguing for investors to take the lead on climate change through allocation rather than wait for government intervention (who appear paralysed to an extent on this issue). Attached for your convenience and also available on our LinkedIn page. Additionally, I wanted to provide an example

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  • Meeting Notes: One-on-one with SECOS Group

    We recently had a one-on-one meeting with Richard Tegoni (Chairman) at SECOS Group Ltd (SES). Given we do not cover the stock, the main purpose of this call was to get an initial understanding of the Company’s business model as we develop our knowledge on the stock. SES is a developer and manufacturer of sustainable

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  • Fund Manager thoughts on a COVID-19 vaccine and near-term outlook

    BanyanTree Investment Group was recently featured on Ausbiz where Fund Manager Zach Riaz offered his views on the recent market correction and the periphery services that will see increased commercial activity once a COVID-19 vaccine is developed. Here are this thoughts. Vaccine timeline Clearly this will have a material impact on investor sentiment, the health

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  • August Monthly Economic Wrap and the ASX Stocks that Moved

    US markets were stronger in the month, with the Dow Jones up +7.57% and S&P500 up +7.01%, on back of vaccine progress with Russia giving regulatory approval for the world’s first Covid-19 vaccine for use with mass inoculation to start soon and Pfizer Inc. announcing its Covid-19 vaccine is on track to seeking regulatory review

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  • Watch Recording: Earnings Season wrap-up with expert Fund Managers

    On Thursday September 3rd Emerald Financial recorded a special one-off webinar to wrap up the reporting season that was. In this session we were joined by with Zach Riaz, Investment Manager at Banyantree Investment Group. Give the tumultuous nature of the market and economy this year, it’s been the most interesting season we’ve seen forRead More
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  • June Monthly Economic Wrap and the ASX Stocks that Moved

    US markets were stronger in the month, with the Dow Jones up +1.69% and S&P500 up +1.84%, as investors looked past concerns over a second coronavirus wave and focused on reopening of economies, better-than-expected economic data and potential new stimulus measures. Long-dated US treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-Yr yield higher at 0.15% and

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  • The key debate on Tabcorp Holdings

    During our recent meeting with TAH, it was raised with us that investors need to consider Lotteries as an infrastructure asset. Without doubt the highly attractive Lotteries business is currently being overshadowed by the problems in Wagering and Gaming Services (which is now a non-core asset and likely to be divested at earliest opportunity). Post

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  • BP Plc just reduced its long-term oil price assumption by 27% – The implication for Australian producers

    Global oil giant BP Plc “now sees the prospect of the COVID-19 pandemic having an enduring impact on the global economy with the potential for weaker demand for energy for a sustained period. The pandemic will accelerate the pace of transition to a lower carbon economy and energy system.” Revised long-term price assumption & impairments.

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  • The U.S. Fed’s unprecedented market interventions…it now owns the recently bankrupted Hertz

    The U.S. Fed’s unprecedented market interventions was recently on display. If you are trying to work out why there is such a difference between Main Street and Wall Street, the example below may provide some clues. As of 12 May 2020, the U.S. Fed has started to purchase ETFs as part of its emergency program

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  • Are banks’ hybrid distributions under threat?

    A client put a fair question to us this morning – will bank hybrid distribution payments come under threat as major banks start to reduce or defer dividends? Bank dividends. As most investors by now appreciate, major Australian banks have (or are expected to) either reduce, defer or cut dividends on ordinary shares. National Australia

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  • ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ – Macro update

    “Don’t fight the Fed” as you are being paid to take risks. Your investment thesis on asset classes at this present moment will be to follow the Fed (or central bank) dollar. Moral hazard is too costly it seems, and the latest unprecedented stimulus measures announced by the U.S. Fed in corporate credit markets highlights that the “whatever

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  • Coronavirus trends – Equity strategy update

    As we have previously written, investors need to keep an eye on company announcements for further clarity on near-term impact from COVID-19 as Feb-20 updates/commentary were largely redundant by the end of February. In this regard, we have been keeping up with the recent ASX company announcements across a diverse range of companies to get

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  • Most common question – have equities fallen far enough?

    The question is at what point do equities start looking cheap. We think about markets and opportunities from an portfolio construction perspective. However, we appreciate clients want some context around current market prices so hopefully comments below help. Have equities fallen far enough? Potentially not but they are more closer to the bottom than they were

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  • Energy Markets Update – Implications of the Russia-Saudi Tensions

    Energy markets are grappling with tensions between Russia and Saudi Arabia, with a price war emerging post recent OPEC+Russia meeting. ASX energy sector sold off yesterday as a result. Energy valuation summary (prices as of end of day yesterday OPEC+Russia delivers a nasty surprise. Most investors were holding out on the hope that the recent OPEC+Russia

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  • Coronavirus COVID-19 becomes an issue as Australian Reporting Season ends: Equity strategy insight

    No doubt, after many weeks with coronavirus, dubbed “COVID-19”, lingering in the background of U.S and Australian corporate reporting season, investment markets, have reacted strongly over the past week. On public health concerns and uncertainty over the economic impact, we saw a sell-off in equities and yield on “safe-haven” 10-year Treasuries being pushed to record

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  • Being defensive is currently paying off…

    Given so many coronavirus experts have appeared since its outbreak, we haven’t felt the need to add to the noise. But we have been closely monitoring the situation through macro data, bottom up company research, discussions with company management teams, with our partners here and offshore. The recent offshore and current ASX reporting season has

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  • The next big thing in tech

    Given the success (and astronomical returns, if you got in early) of tech investing over the past decade, every investor is trying to find the next “unicorn”. In order to understand what the next big tech thing is, we spoke to some of the largest and most active early stage and venture capital firms around

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  • Quantifying Coronavirus – Equity Strategy

    In the past week, China’s Coronavirus as potentially our next black swan event weighed heavily on financial markets. Whilst it remains too early and difficult to quantify the precise impact, market analysts have estimated that if the problem is prolonged for another month, the financial impact could be, and that is a big ‘could be’,

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  • Points to consider for a sustainability strategy

    Happy new year. We have just published a primer on our Sustainable strategy. But I wanted to give a little more colour to the topic. Some points for consideration: (1) We have of course discussed our approach to Sustainable investing with several clients leading up to this publication and we have incorporated some of these suggestions.

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  • ‘Never a dull moment’, Fund Manager looks at implications for Trade Deal and Brexit

    There is never a dull moment in financial markets. U.S. Phase-One Trade Deal It has been reported U.S. President Donald Trump has signed off on a phase-one deal, which will importantly prevent additional tariffs being introduced on 15 December on approximately $160bn consumer goods. From our perspective, its 13 Dec-19 and something had to be announced

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